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Shock Library

Every tracked disruption, ordered by how much of your business it actually touches.

Active shocks
4

Disruptions under way right now, before emerging and watchlist items.

Relevant to you
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Set up your business profile to score these against your operation.

Largest chokepoint deviation
-49%

Bab-el-Mandeb is running 892 transits against a baseline of 1,750 — cargo on this lane is being delayed or rerouted.

Showing 8 of 8 tracked shocks. Order is set by relevance to your business, not by severity — a severity-3 event on a lane you depend on outranks a severity-5 event nowhere near you.

Relevant to you

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Relevance is the overlap between a shock and your own suppliers, inputs, customer markets and shipping lanes. Until your profile exists, every shock below is shown unranked.

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All active shocks

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

SEV 5/5 · critical disruptionactive
Maritime chokepointDuration estimate: 6-14 weeks8 weeks running
What this means for businesses like yours

Expect energy-linked input inflation (resins, fertiliser, base chemicals) within 3-5 weeks, plus 10-18 day added lead times on Gulf-origin petrochemical feedstock. Contracts priced on floating bunker surcharges will reset upward.

IranUnited Arab EmiratesQatarSaudi ArabiaKuwaitIraqOmanIndiaChinaJapanStrait of HormuzGulf of Aden approaches

China rare earth export controls expansion

SEV 4/5 · severe disruptionactive
Export controlsDuration estimate: 9-24 months3 months running
What this means for businesses like yours

Magnet, sensor and motor assemblies face 8-16 week licence lag and 25-60% price escalation. Qualify non-Chinese sintered magnet sources now; expect audit requests on end-use documentation from tier-1 customers.

ChinaUnited StatesJapanSouth KoreaGermanyNetherlandsTaiwanMalaysia

Red Sea rerouting persistence

SEV 4/5 · severe disruptionactive
Maritime chokepointDuration estimate: Structural — 12+ months7 months running
What this means for businesses like yours

Asia-Europe lead times stay structurally longer; safety stock must rise roughly 25-30% on affected SKUs. Expect quarterly freight rate volatility rather than a single spike.

EgyptYemenSaudi ArabiaIndiaChinaGermanyNetherlandsUnited KingdomItalySpainSuez CanalBab-el-MandebCape of Good Hope

Mexico labor action at Pacific ports

SEV 3/5 · material disruptionactive
Labor actionDuration estimate: 2-6 weeks4 weeks running
What this means for businesses like yours

Nearshored automotive and appliance supply chains lose their lead-time advantage. Air-freight substitution costs run 6-9x ocean per kg; expedite budgets should be provisioned now.

MexicoUnited StatesCanadaChinaSouth Korea

Taiwan Strait exercise-driven shipping advisories

SEV 4/5 · severe disruptionemerging
Military postureDuration estimate: 1-4 weeks per cycle3 weeks running
What this means for businesses like yours

Advanced-node semiconductor and PCB deliveries face 4-10 day slips. Any single-sourced Taiwanese component is a board-level risk; document dual-source status per part number.

TaiwanChinaJapanPhilippinesSouth KoreaUnited StatesTaiwan StraitLuzon Strait

EU CBAM phase-two levy on downstream goods

SEV 3/5 · material disruptionemerging
RegulatoryDuration estimate: Permanent from Q1 20276 weeks running
What this means for businesses like yours

Landed cost on EU-bound fabricated metal rises an estimated 4-11%. Suppliers unable to produce verified emissions data become commercially unusable; begin data collection this quarter.

GermanyFranceItalyPolandTürkiyeIndiaChinaUkraine

Panama Canal draft restrictions from rainfall deficit

SEV 3/5 · material disruptionemerging
Climate & infrastructureDuration estimate: 3-7 months, seasonal6 weeks running
What this means for businesses like yours

US Gulf-to-Asia agricultural and resin flows face slot auction premia of USD 200k-2m per transit. Expect Asia-to-US-East-Coast substitution onto Suez or land bridge, lengthening lead times 5-8 days.

PanamaUnited StatesChilePeruEcuadorChinaJapanPanama CanalStrait of Magellan

Sahel transit corridor closure

SEV 2/5 · manageable disruptionwatchlist
Conflict & securityDuration estimate: Indefinite4 months running
What this means for businesses like yours

Bauxite, uranium and cotton feedstock costs drift upward with 20-40% inland haulage premia. Low direct exposure for most mid-market firms but relevant to nuclear utilities and textile buyers.

NigerMaliBurkina FasoBeninTogoFranceCôte d’Ivoire